In its industry webinar at the end of June, aviation intelligence consultancy IBA said the outlook for the helicopter market remains positive, pointing to growth opportunities in Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) as well as Offshore Energy support (both wind and oil and gas) as well as an easing of supply chain issues as the core drivers of growth.
IBA predicted that new aircraft deliveries of western-built turbine helicopters, which have averaged around 500 airframes per annum over the last five years, will increase to 525 this year. It expects the bulk of these aircraft – around 360 – to be in the light turbine category, with Airbus 125s, 145s and Bell 407s taking the lion’s share of deliveries.
Meanwhile, it’s looking for a sharper uptick percentage-wise in the medium category with Leonardo’s AW139 and 169 dominant – although the recent granting of FAA certification of Airbus’s H160 may shift the balance of orders. The consultancy reports that its expectation is that the advent of Super-medium class helicopters, with the Airbus H175 and Leonardo AW189 in the vanguard, will put paid to heavy helicopters like the H225 and Sikorsky S92.
Even so, IBA also pointed to the resurgence in demand for S-92s in the leasing market as demand for offshore energy support ramps up. IBA noted that when compared with 2019, overall lease rates are at 112% for light-category aircraft, and 110% for mediums and super-mediums but rates for heavies are linked to activity in the offshore oil price.
As would be expected, demand growth has been reflected in a strong value base with market values of the light, medium and super-medium categories at 115%, 111% and 106%, respectively of Base Values, with IBA predicting further value growth for all in 2023 and 2024. However, IBA said that heavy helicopters are currently at 80% of Base Values with an uncertain future outlook. Although IBA didn’t specify by type – the market for the H225s in the large North American and European segment largely dissipated while S-92 demand is at a five-year high.
