While the expectation is that the multi-engine fleet share will remain around 40% the question is how many of them will be super-mediums? Photo: Airbus/Anthony Pecchi
Cirium has published its 2025-34 helicopter fleet forecast, revealing that the post-slump, post-pandemic order surge has begun to abate. Fleet growth is expected to stabilise at a steady 1.3% a year. In numerical and fiscal terms, this translates to a requirement for around 7,500 new aircraft valued at USD 50 billion, taking the world fleet to 27,700 by 2034.
Cirium said that one of the key drivers for the lower rate compared with the first part of the 2010s is that fleet longevity is on the rise, with the number of aircraft leaving the fleet through retirements and losses compared with 20 years ago, halving. At the turn of the century, the fleet attrition rate was 1%, whereas in the 10 years to 2023, this had fallen to 0.5% with 2024 showing a further fall to 0.4%. This comes, said the report, as a result of a marked reduction in hull losses, indicating a welcome trend that safety initiatives are having an effect. Another factor driving fleet longevity could be the cost and availability of new-build aircraft.
For turbines, the single/multi fleet mix is expected to remain at its present 60/40 single to twin ratio over the next 10 years, no surprise since the ratio has hovered within a few points of those numbers for the last 10 years. What will be interesting to see will be how the ratio of super-mediums to heavies evolves in the next decade, especially as the S-92 offshore retirement rate picks up.
Perhaps, though, the most telling of the statements is this (and for those in the industry who know Cirium’s Lead Appraiser for Helicopters and AAM, Sara Dhariwal, read this with her voice in your head!), “Some would argue that slow and steady is ‘boring’ and implies that there isn’t anything of interest going on in the market. The stronger argument is possibly that slow and steady provides companies the time required to make better, more considered long-term strategic decisions.”
The full report is available HERE
